I love data and running numbers. This has served me well being able to help my clients make important decisions. Lately I find myself in a lot of conversations about the impact of the upcoming presidential election on the market. Are buyers and sellers waiting to see what happens before making a move? Are people in a hurry to buy or sell before we have a new president next year? To figure that out, I ran historical data.
First, I pulled the following totals for every month since January 2004: new pending sales and new listings. This would give us the amount of new listings (sellers) and new “under contracts” (buyers). This activity should show motivation in any given month. Then, since I’ve had these conversations for around a month, I specifically focused on September of every year. The real estate market changes year to year so I compared every September to the average total new listings and average under contract for its corresponding year. By dividing the September total into the monthly average, it gives me an idea of how that September compared to that year. For example, in 2022, the monthly average of new listings added to the market was 1,879. The total number of listings added in September specifically was 1,772. That means that September was 94% of the listings added that year. Once I have that number, I can compare election years with non-election years to see if there’s any trends with consumer behavior when buying and selling real estate.
There’s a surprising trend that goes against what I’m anecdotally experiencing this year:
Buyers are 10.58% more active and sellers are 7.60% more active during an election year versus a non-election year in the month of September.
4 out of the last 6 Septembers before an election year resulted in a larger than average number of buyers going under contract. For the same statistic in a non-election year, it’s 5 out of 15 years. For sellers in an election year, 3 out of 6 Septembers before an election year resulted in a larger than average number of number of properties being listed on the market. In a non election year, only 2 out of 15 years resulted in a higher than average number of properties being added. Feel free to email me if you’d like to see my homework. I’ve double and triple checked it.
Do I think that people are waiting to make a move? Yes! Do I think that more people decide to make a move? Looking at the data, they most certainly do. If you’re making a big decision, look at the data for help!
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